Part II- Do rankings determine success: Quarterbacks
Part II- Do rankings determine success: Quarterbacks – (Classes -2012-2017)
In part II of do rankings determine success of quarterbacks we will look to see if over time fan base sites have done a better job of evaluating quarterbacks. Over the past decade one major difference in evaluating quarterbacks is the access of film, 7 on 7 footage, camp footage and combines. Quarterbacks now all seem to have personal quarterback coaches as well. How much of an impact has each of these things had on evaluating the position better. We will once again take a look at the quarterback classes and what each player has done since they graduated high school and stepped onto the big stage of college football.
2012
1-Jameis Winston-(5) FSU
2-Gunner Kiel-(5) ND> Cincinnati
3-Zach Kline-(4) California
4-Cyler Miles (4) Washington
5-Anthony Alford-(4) Southern Miss
6-Tanner Mangum-(4) BYU
7-Matt Davis-(4) SMU
8-Connor Brewer-(4) Texas> Virginia
9-Chad Kelly-(4) Clemson> Ole Miss
10-Chad Voytik-(4) Pittsburgh> Arkansas State
Thoughts: WOW…..Outside of Winston this class was brutal. Winston was the top ranked quarterback and led FSU to not only a NC but he won the Heisman as well. Chad Kelly had marginal success at Ole Miss but the rest of the top ten either did not play, underperformed over transferred to another program.
Not Ranked top 10…..Nathan Peterman-Tennessee>Pitt (26th Overall, NFL Roster), Nate Sudfeld (Indiana-33rd Overall), Cardale Jones-(Ohio State-43rd Overall), Case Keenum (Not Ranked)
2013
1-Max Browne-(5) USC> Pittsburgh
2-Christian Hackenberg (5) Penn State
3-Shane Morris-(4) Michigan
4-Cooper Bateman-(4) Alabama> Utah
5-Kevin Olsen-(4) Miami>Charlotte
6-Troy Williams-(4) Washington>Utah
7-Brice Ramsey-(4) Georgia
8-Cody Thomas-(4) Oklahoma
9-Asiante Woulard-(4) UCLA>USF
10-JT Barret-(4) Ohio State
Not ranked top 10…..Mitch Trubisky-(4)-(UNC-19th overall-1st Round Pick), Jared Goff-(Cal-21st -1st Round Pick), Paxton Lynch (NR)-(Memphis-1st Round Pick)
Thoughts: If there was one prospect we missed on it was Brice Ramsey. We watched this kid throw at multiple camps and he had a natural throwing motion. Every pass he threw was right on the mark. He never reached his potential and has become a career backup at Georgia, Brown, Hackenberg and Morris you can put in the BUST category. The rest of the top ten outside of JT Barrett has been…..not good. You look at the non-top ten prospects and you ended up with three first round picks.
2014
1-Kyle Allen-(5) Texas A&M>Houston
2-Deshaun Watson-(5) Clemson-(1st Round Pick)
3-Will Grier-(4) UF>West Virginia
4-Keller Chryst-(4) Stanford>Tennessee
5-Jerrod Heard-(4) Texas
6-Brandon Harris-(4) LSU>North Carolina
7-David Cornwell-(4) Alabama> Nevada
8-Drew Barker-(4) UK
9-Jacob Park-(4) UGA>Iowa State
10-Brad Kaaya-(4) UM
Not Ranked top 10….Clayton Thornson-(4)(Northwestern-13th Overall), Deshon Kizer-(4) (Notre Dame-19TH Overall), Mason Rudolph-(4) (Oklahoma State-21st Overall), Quinton Flowers-(3) (USF-27th Overall), Patrick Mahomes-(3) (Texas Tech-44th Overall-1st Round Pick), Trace McSorley-(3) (Penn State-43rd Overall)
Thoughts: Watson should have been the top ranked quarterback in this class. When you look at the non-top ten ranked quarterbacks it is quite impressive. Thornson is projected as a 1st round pick, Kizer got drafted by the Browns, Rudolph got drafted, Flowers had a very good college career, Mahomes went in round 1 and Trace McSorley is a great college quarterback. This is one year the so called experts got it wrong.
2015
1-Josh Rosen-(5) UCLA (1st Round Pick)
2-Blake Barnett-(5) Alabama>Arizona State>USF
3-Kyle Murray-(5) Texas A&M>Oklahoma
4-Jarrett Stidham-(4) Baylor >Auburn
5-Brandon Wimbush-(4) Notre Dame
6-Deondre Francois-(4) FSU
7-Brady White-(4) Arizona State
8-Jake Browning-(4) Washington
9-Ricky Town-(4) USC>Pittsburgh
10-Drew Lock-(4) Missouri
Not Ranked top 10….Sam Darnold –(4) (USC-12th Overall-1st Round Pick), Brett Rypien-(4) (Boise State-17th Overall), Lamar Jackson-(3) (Louisville-27th Overall-1st Round Pick), Eric Dungey-(3) (Syracuse-43rd Overall).
Thoughts: When we look back at the class of 2015 it will end up being one that is very productive. You will have Rose, Darnold and Jackson going round 1. Drew Lock is projected as a potential 1st round Pick. Murray will start this year for Oklahoma. Stidhman, Wimbush, Francois, Browning are all productive starters. If you re-ranked this class and had 1-Rosen, 2-Darnold, 3-Jackson, 4-Rypien, 5-Browning, 6-Stidham, 7-Lock, 8-Francois, 9-Wimbush and 10-Dungey…..you would think this is close to one of the best classes to have come out in the past 10-15 years.
2016
1-Shea Patterson-(5) Ole Miss>Michigan
2-Jacob Eason-(5) Georgia>Washington
3-KJ Costello-(4) Stanford
4-Malik Henry-(4) FSU>Juco
5-Felipe Franks-(4) UF
6-Brandon Peters-(4)-Michigan
7-Jarrett Guarantano-(4) Tennessee
8-Dwayne Haskins-(4) Ohio State
9-Brandon Mcillwain-(4) USC>Colorado
10-Jack Allison-(4) Miami>West Virginia
Not Ranked top 10….Jalen Hurts-(4) (Alabama-13th Overall), Jake Bentley-(4)(South Carolina-20th Overall, Riley Ferguson (3) (Tennessee>Memphis-25th Overall), Josh Jackson-(3)(Virginia Tech-31st Overall), Nick Starkel-(3)(Texas A&M-37th Overall), Nathan Stanley-(Iowa-38th Overall), Tyler Huntley-(3) (Utah-39th Overall) and Justin Herbert-(3) (Oregon-44th Overall)
Thoughts: This will go down as the WHAT IF class…Patterson, Eason, Costello, Henry, Franks and Allison all had the physical skills to be an elite group. In the end this is going to end up a class as the year of the transfer. 5 of the top 10 quarterbacks will have left their team before they finished two years at their program. The quarterbacks outside the top ten have been quite impressive. Justin Herbert is already projected as a potential 1st round pick.
2017
1-David Mills-(5) Stanford
2-Hunter Johnson (5) Clemson>Northwestern
3-Tua Tagovailoa-(5) Alabama
4-Jake Fromm-(4) UGA
5-Tate Martell-(4) Ohio State
6-Jack Sears-(4) USC
7-Kellen Mond-(4) Texas A&M
8-Sam Ehlinger-(4)
9-Dylan McCaffrey-(4) Michigan
10-Myles Brennan-(4) LSU
Not Ranked in top 10…..James Blackman-(3) (Florida State-29th Overall)
Thoughts: It is still too early to tell how this class does in college. Hunter Johnson showed potential in Clemson spring game but was outdone by Trevor Lawrence one of the best quarterbacks to come out in the past 15 years. Jake Fromm and Tagovailoa both showcased their potential in the National Championship Game last year. Myles Brennan got the chance to play and had his moments. Overall it looks like a solid class to potentially very good. James Blackman has already outdone his ranking which was 29th Overall.
Quarterbacks / Low or non-ranked
1. Baker Mayfield-Lake Travis HS-(6’1-190) (Offers: FAU, New Mexico, Rice) Walked on (Texas Tech / OU) (1st Overall Pick)
2. Carson Wentz-Century HS-(6’5-220) (Offers: None) (Signed with North Dakota State) (1st Round Pick)
3. Josh Allen-Reedley CC-(6’5-215) (Offers: Wyoming, Eastern Michigan) (Signed with Wyoming) (1st Round Pick)
4. Kyle Lauletta- Downingtown East-(6’3-190) (Offers: Richmond, Holy Cross, Old Dominion, Toledo and Townson) (Signed with Richmond) (4th Round Pick)
5. Patrick Mahomes II-Whitehouse High-6’3-180 (Offers: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Rice) (Signed with Texas Tech) (1st Round Pick)
6. Paxton Lynch-Deltona Trinity Christian-6’5-220 (Offers: Memphis) (Signed with Memphis) (1st Round Pick)
7. Connor Cook-Walsh Jesuit-6’5-200 (Offers: Michigan State) (Signed with Michigan State) (NFL Draft Pick-Ranked 949th overall in the country)
8. Jimmy Garoppolo-Rolling Meadows-6’3-210 (Offers: E. Illinois, Illinois State and Montana State) (Starter for the Niners) (2034 ranked player in the country)